Sunny and 78… for a week? Seattle might just pull it off

OK I admit it…

Seattle sun fans, I know I put a real damper on your vibe earlier this week with my cheerful post that Seattle’s average high temperatures have peaked and have started their descent toward winter. (To be fair, that ended up being my third most read post of the year so far…)

But I am here to farm some of that aura back…*

(*Opening paragraphs submitted and checked for accuracy…though not without epic 🙄… by a certified member of Gen Z. And I quote: “yes lmao”.)

But what if I told you, you could have several days in a row of comfortable sunshine — even kicking out the smoke for some of it — with a potential option for several more additional days on the end?

Yes, we already got a head start this week with highs in the 70s to low 80s. But this week loses points for both the thick smoke layer that moved in aloft, and the scattered thunderstorms that have been popping up in the Cascades and Olympics, adding more fire starts and headaches to firefighters who don’t need any more.

(And we’re apparently running out of fire names. I saw our friends at Puget Sound Storm Watch found a brief fire Friday near La Push was apparently named “It’s La Push Road Baby Fire”. 😅 It’s already out.)

The weak trough that was adding those pesky thunderstorms is moving out and the lingering thunderstorm threat is quickly diminishing. Red Flag Warnings expired Friday night.

And now, we are locking in to a rather comfortable summer pattern for the next week or so. Western Washington will be in the sweet spot of just close enough to high pressure to the southeast to provide a little warmth, but far enough away not to get torched by its heat. The National Forecast Model average has this for highs in Seattle the next 10 days: 79 80 81 77 77 79 78 75 75 76 77.

Meanwhile, an upper level low well off the Pacific Coast will push in some gentle southwesterly breezes aloft that will push this smoke away for a while. We should start to see some improvement by midday Saturday with way more “blue” tinge to the skies on Sunday and into early next week.

Down at the surface, the ocean breezes – our “natural air conditioning” — will be on steadily through the period. If you visualize a setting from 0 (off) to 10 (full blast) we’re looking at holding right at a 3 or a 4 – enough to keep the coast in the 60s and Seattle/Puget Sound in the upper 70s — cooler near the waters; warmer in the foothills but very Seattle summer-esque.

And of course, increasing blue for sky color, especially Sunday.

The pattern holds into at least early next week — sunny, not smoky, upper 70s in Seattle. All outdoor plans are a go (just check that smoke haze on Saturday if going into the Cascades.)

Really, if we could put Seattle and the Puget Sound/Western Washington area in a silo and not worry about smoke or wildfires or drought, it really would be about the best summer weather you could ask for. These are the weeks of 78 degrees with dew points in the 50s that you point to when someone incredulously asks in November how you can stand living here. (Then point out the current map of the heat dome torching the Southeast this week. 114 heat index in Charleston, SC :O)

There is still a very slim but non-zero chance of isolated thunderstorms in the Cascades through the weekend.

HOW LONG DOES THIS LAST?

The forecast models are starting to diverge a bit as we get toward the end of the week into next weekend, but even then, the spread of possibilities isn’t too daunting. Some of the models keep the status quo of upper 70s/low 80s; other models are thinking another trough could enter the picture.

That would, if anything, cool us off a bit as it would ramp up the air conditioning to a 7 or 8, but could also bring a return of the smoke aloft similar to what’s happening now, and also bring a return of storms and/or wind to Eastern Washington.

Some of the stronger — but again this is a small number — models could have a little rain in here end of next weekend. End of August is about when we start to become reacquainted with what a rain shower looks like so it wouldn’t be unusual. But I’ve already said enough and this is supposed to be my ode to sun fans so I’ll stop here to keep up that main character energy….

(TL;DR: Too Long, Didn’t Read Version: Seattle weather looks great for the next 10 days with plenty of sun, waning smoke, and comfortable temperatures. Scott tries to look hip with cringe Gen Z references. Reviews mixed…)