Seattle forecast to endure its 14th-consecutive hotter-than-average summer
Scott Sistek 
Photo by Robert Ritchie on Unsplash
A long climate streak in Seattle is set to add another year to its jaw-dropping tally this summer if the long-range outlooks are on the right track.
The latest 90-day outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows a 60-70% chance that Seattle will end up with a warmer-than-average summer.
That’s a stunningly high confidence for a long range outlook in itself and a bit newsworthy in its own right. Especially coming off a poor-performing winter for mountain snowpack so we’re already coming into summer at a disadvantage as far as bankable water.
But there was a bigger news item that I didn’t know until the National Weather Service in Seattle pointed it out in Wednesday morning’s forecast discussion.
If Seattle’s hot summer prognostication comes to fruition in 2026, it would be the *14*TH CONSECUTIVE Seattle summer that measured hotter than average (using Meteorological Summer for records of June 1 to Aug. 31.)
“The last year June through August had below normal temperatures was 2012 (0.7 degrees below normal),” said meteorologist Dana Felton with the NWS in Seattle. “It was close in 2024 with temperatures only 0.3 degrees above normal. The warmest June through August in the above normal streak was 2015 where temperatures were 5.0 degrees above normal.”
That coincided with “The Blob” and remains Seattle’s hottest overall year on record. It also goes to illustrate how consistent that summer’s heat was in that the Heat Dome of 2021 didn’t topple it despite late June’s incredible temperatures. 2015 had a still-record 51 days above 80 degrees in Seattle, 12 of which hit at least 90. (That record was broken in 2022 at 13.)
“The remainder of the years range from 1.1 degrees to 3.2 degrees above normal,” Felton continued.
But the data bears out that something seemed to change between 2012 and 2013.
Average number of days >X degrees from 1945-2012 at Sea-Tac Airport:
- 80+: 25 days
- 85+: 10 days
- 90+: 3 days
Average number of days >X degrees from 2013-2025 at Sea-Tac Airport:
- 80+: 41 days
- 85+: 21 days
- 90+: 7 days
It shakes out on my “Summer Minutes” counter too, where I count up each minute at the University of Washington where the temperature is over 80 degrees each year.
- Average annual summer minutes in Seattle from 2000-2012: 6,544
- Average annual summer minutes in Seattle from 2013-2025: 10,985
We can’t really blame El Niño yet for any upcoming hot summer — while evidence is overwhelming that El Niño will be here by the fall, and yes, perhaps at strong to historic levels, it’s not at those levels *yet*. It’s still on the ramp up. Technically, we’re not even in El Niño yet though we’ll likely reach the minimum criteria to be declared El Niño very soon — probably in NOAA’s next update this month.
But the strong El Niño will likely be more of a factor in warming up our fall and winter than this summer.
HOWEVER, the warming powers of a strong El Niño could linger through into next summer, and NOAA also has unusually high confidence that the summer of 2027 is going to end up as the *15th* summer in a row that is warmer than average.
And yes, that means I’m working on stashing a supply of cute “Emergency Kittens” videos to unleash as needed in the months ahead 😛
BUT IF SUMMER’S GOING TO BE HOT, IT’S GETTING A LATE START
All signs may point to this summer easily besting Seattle’s average temperature, but it’s going to start from behind. Despite the 86 degree “scorcher” on Tuesday, we’re looking at least a week of relatively cool temperatures now, with even some rain at times (like Friday, Saturday and Monday.)
However, the mid-range outlooks indicate a return to warmer and drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest or the middle to end of June.
P.S. Just to reiterate from my earlier post this week, if you see social media posts showing that these NOAA maps portend “historic” or “hottest summer ever” temperatures in Seattle — that is incorrect and misleading. Those maps show a confidence scale, not an intensity scale. NOAA is suggesting they have high confidence the summer will end up hotter than average but do not forecast if it will be historic level heat — certainly not 120 degrees in Seattle like some AI-generated maps have indicated.
MORE TO EXPLORE:
- ‘Historically’ hot summer in the Northwest? Don’t believe the hype
- The legacy of Seattle’s ‘Rule of 9’ when it comes to forecasting 80 degree heat